July 29, 2013
Last Saturday in Kyiv Russia’s president Vladimir Putin was describing longly the benefits what Ukraine got in Russia and Soviet empires. It was really funny to watch that nothing changed in the mind of Kremlin leaders.
The rhetoric used in communist times remains the same in nowadays. “No man putteth new wine into old bottles”, said in New Testament, but Mr.Putin does not listen to that. Even despite the fact that he visited Kyiv to celebrate 1025 anniversary of the Kyivska Rus’ mass baptism.
Russia always uses religion as argument on the “historical unity” of two nations. For the time being orthodoxy is one of the means to drag Ukraine into a new Russia’s controlled integration body. Being in Kyiv Kremlin leader again implied that Ukraine should join Customs union of Russia, Belarus’ and Kazakhstan.
But for the time being Moscow’s tactical task number one is to prevent an EU-Ukraine Association agreement signature. Situation with that remains highly uncertain, but there are two good news before next summer breake.
Paradoxically, but the first one is that situation remains highly uncertain. In the case of worst scenario we could know already that the agreement will not be signing on November. Everything went to such sad final in the first months of the year: new criminal proceeding against ex-premier Yulia Tymoshenko; in fact unrealizable EU’s demand to fulfill all conditions required till May; deprivation of MP’s credentials of Mrs. Tymoshenko’s defender Serhiy Vlasenko etc. But miracle or half-miracle has happened and we still have some hopes.
The second good news is that the question of the joining to Customs union is not on Ukraine’s agenda. We do not know if it is forever – but for the time being it is not obstacle for the AA signature. Some time ago seemed that highly aggressive Russia’s pressure could bring fruits and Ukraine will be enticed to Russia’s integration body. But it did not happen. Kyiv told that it does not have plans to join Customs union and now just trying to sweeten Kremlin’s disappointment and anger.
But there are number of other obstacles which Ukraine should remove till October. The case of Yulia Tymoshenko and serious legislative changes in the field of judiciary are among them. It is impossible to predict final result. But time to know it is not so far.
Author : anatoliymartsynovski